Taming the Chinese Dragon

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With the pandemic exerting excruciating duress on humankind, the conveyor of the virus, China, has embarked on a new journey to perturb the harmonious order across the world. The imperialistic ambitions of the PRC are evident by the war hysteria it is creating in its neighborhood. This hegemonic narrative of the PRC seems to be insuperable and threatening, especially, to tiny countries like the Philippines, South Korea, and other pacifist countries of the South China sea. But this war hysteria takes another form when the same approach is executed towards the south Asian giant, India. In Asia, India is the only country with which China can't think of engaging in a direct military collision. In fact, either of the countries can’t opt for a military adventure against the other. Despite that, the foolishness of the PLA has allowed them to back-stab Indian soldiers in Galwan Valley, consequently, 20 Indian brave hearts succumbed to death and the Chinese also had to bear the casualties. In order to decipher the eternal cold war along the LAC, we need to delve into the complexities of the India-China relationship.

Image Source: pixabay

An estimated length of the Sino Indian border happens to be 3488 km, but owing to the illegal occupation of Aksai Chin by the PRC, we have 4057 km of the LAC. From 1947 to 1949, India and China had no final settled border. India pertinaciously endorses the Johnson line of 1865 while China is adamant on the Macartney-MacDonald line of 1899. In a way, these two different perceptions have been the bone of contention between the two countries. Consequently, the entire border can be viewed as, the western sector, the undisputed sector, and the Mac Mohan line. This demarcation acted as a ceasefire from 1962 to 1993. In the 1980s, the Indian PM, Rajiv Gandhi and Chinese President, Den Xiaoping decided to initiate talks to resolve the border issue and materialize the final border. Following the intervention by the top leadership of both the sides, in 1993, the LAC was recognized on the principles of peace and tranquility. In 1996, an agreement regarding the activities on the border was signed and in addition to that, a consensus about each other’s perception on the basis of political narrative, demarcation, and all-sectors framework was reached. Throughout this period of eternity, the major breakthrough came in 2013, when the India China Border Defence Cooperation Agreement was signed, in which it was decided to not engage in any armed confrontation. Moreover, China stupidly advocates to improve the relations first and then the border settlement, no wonder, border settlement is not on its priority list. But following the episodes in 2019 and 2020, the PRC and the PLA have become supremely nervous and disheartened. In 2019, the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Act enacted by the Indian establishment augmented the consternation of the Chinese by claiming the regions of Aksai Chin and Pakistan occupied Kashmir, which is the cynosure of the CPEC. Considering the speedy development work in the border areas, primarily the DSDBO road, it would be naive to overlook the possibility that the aggressive approach followed by the Indian establishment tormented the Chinese and they started contemplating that India could now demand the status quo ante (before 1950). This could be one of the reasons, but in actuality, China’s belligerent incursion is primarily the repercussion of the headwinds it is confronting during the COVID crisis.

Headwinds for China

The China of 2020 appears to be seemingly unquenchable, especially, considering its economic clout, military muscle, manufacturing apparatus, enormous consumer market, market capitalization, and an appetite to declare itself the next superpower. In a way, it’s true but debatable. Firstly, Xi Jinping’s perception of supremacy has resulted in uninvited headwinds from its neighbors in the South China Sea, where it practices its right to hegemony. Secondly, the stark trade deficit with the US has induced the horrible economic prospects, which, after the COVID debacle, might put it under the CAATSA act of the US. Thirdly, the alignment of another Asian giant, India, with the western world can pose a serious threat to China’s dominance at the international level. Above all, the emergence of Taiwan, which shakes the fundamentals and foundations of the Xinping government, has made China anxious. To worsen the narrative of the Chinese, the COVID, which many believe is a gift to the world by China, has catapulted countless questions towards the Xinping administration.

All these factors combined with the mayhem in its domestic politics have compelled and incentivize it to launch an offensive against its neighbors, and India is no different.

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Options for India

Being a giant of South Asia, thrashing India in a head-on collision is nearly impossible even for a 14 trillion$ economy. Consequently, China doesn’t have the comfort and edge to execute its imperialistic ambitions. But India needs to reinforce its army deployment along the border, which the army must be doing as per the established norms. But the over defensive approach of the Indian diplomacy has substantially attenuated its edge over the Chinese wolf warriors. India needs to ensure an aggressive diplomatic approach to address the issues related to Taiwan, Tibet, and maybe the Tiananmen Square massacre, which can rattle and fume the Xinping administration. India could contemplate joining various groups like G7 or being an active member of QUAD. Walking on a tightrope, it should not alienate Russia, the door for Russian moderation needs to be kept open for any constructive dialogue. If required, it’s high time we addressed the burning issue of Hongkong. While doing all this, the domestic politics should play out properly, influential ministers should refrain from delivering any statement which can be used against India, which Mr. Modi has already done, unwittingly, by endorsing the narrative of China.

In the entire geopolitical conundrum, we must understand the realistic prospects of the game. These factors are not going to make any significant contribution to India’s growth, especially, in the short run. We have to plan for the next 5-10 years. A monster like China can only be tamed by a gigantic economic warrior, if India wants to be in that position, it needs to plan strategically and intelligently. Only smart manouvring will pay huge dividends, not hollow rhetoric.